There is a lot being said at the moment about AMG’s inevitable rules changes to X Wing. These are a first world problem that never the less has the potential to further fracture the already struggling community, but conversely, might just save it in its current form.
First up, I have little interest in this for my self. X Wing and Armada are for me small parts of a wider hobby that to honest, is taking a back seat to my main hobby/career of photography and videography, but obviously, I still glance their way occasionally or I would not be writing this.
The general feeling as I see it is a gradual warming of sentiment towards something new and radical. One Podcast (Carolina Krayts) said when announcements were made, ROAD (Random Order After Dials) seemed like such and outlier, they at first dismissed it and moved on.
This possibly explains why, on the tournament circuit, it is seen as a shift in perspective second only to the launch of 2e.
My thoughts, not educated, not invested, not possibly relevant;
1) The added randomness it brings will even the playing field for the large group of casual to semi serious players and may occasionally even make some casual players ascendant over champion level players. True champions will go the extra yards to ensure they can cope with a run of good or bad luck as well as can be expected (and for some a heightening of difficulty they may appreciate). For most, the “softening” of predictable tactics will remove some of the pre-determined nature of the tournament scene and may even promote some more experimentation. .
2) This randomness has to be taken into context also. Dice are random, player draws are random and perormance on the day can be a bit random to. Such is life.
3) This brings me to my next thought, realistic simulation over gamesmanship (that old axe). A few people have said they perceive the ROAD dynamic will shift play from “make the best squad and tactics before you get there” to “make the best moves on the day”. To my mind this is ideal, far more realistic and a better test of skill than having it all planned out ahead. There are no guarantees in life and there should be no guarantees in any game mimicking life. To be brave is now a players role as much as their on the table avatar’s.
4) The actual mechanic is likely not as important as some have postulated. If squad diversity is embraced (the removal of the “bid” will possibly promote the addition of “filler” ships), then for some the guarantee of predictable move order through lower base initiative is still part of the squad design process, just not an artificial squad building mechanic giving Fenn the edge over Soontir with the saving of a point or two. If everyone turns up with 2-3 Aces, then things will be interesting, but for the want of a point saved should one squad be disadvantaged all game? Ironically, in 1e it is even less effective with its expanded Initiative range.
5) For casual play, it is largely an irrelevant change. It is a mechanic pure and simple and a perfectly reasonable one. If designed in from the start of 1e, we would not even be talking about it. I am sure plenty have house ruled worse.
6) Most likely the biggest critics are the very players who spend far too much time building squads based on prior knowledge of what is out there in the tournament circuit already. This is akin to pilots becoming mechanics and pit bosses. If this is stripped back just a little, then those people have to think harder about their choices and deal with the fact that some (more) things are out of their control, but it is a reality that some players addicted to high immersion games may find that difficult*.
7) The reality is, the game is one the decline. COVID and AMG aside, sales and interest have been dropping, mostly because this is the way of things, but partly because of built in design limitations becoming stretched. These limitations made the game accessible, but also enveloped its scope. The “Star Fleet Battles” and “Advanced Squad Leader” communities are tiny by comparison, but iron willed due to their near to real rules encyclopaedias and super deep history. This is one path and they have managed to thrive within their small scope, but X Wing tackled a simpler, more regular pathway, a thin and perilous path to tread it is if successful. The fact is, success breeds decline, eventually.
For me the roll mechanic will switch to a simple d6 roll with ties meaning a switch of initiative.
*I myself have made a mini hobby out of dissecting the 1e game, so I see the attraction.